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Macro Retest In Progress - Quick Update
Bitcoin is still in the process of its macro retest of the black 0.5 Fib Curve support.
The retest is successful thus far and even if BTC performs downside wicking below this Fib Curve support, the Monthly candle close above the black 0.5 Fib Curve is most important.
The black 0.5 Fib Curve represents the price point of ~$57,000 at this time.
Is Bitcoin’s Cycle Lengthening?
Bitcoin is currently in a very pivotal part of its cycle:
The retest of the black 0.5 Fib Curve.
This technical step has been instrumental across cycles.
We’ve seen this technical step take place in 2013, 2017, and now BTC is in the progress of repeating this step in this 2021 cycle as well.
But here’s something worth noting.
In 2013, this retest attempt occurred 365 days after Halving #1:
In 2017, this pivotal retest attempt occurred 427 days after Halving #2, during which BTC actually pulled back some -40% on the retest, dipping to as low as the yellow 0.382 Fib Curve support:
And in this cycle, this retest is occurring some ~550 days after Halving #3:
In a nutshell, we can already see the lengthening in terms of how many days after the Halving does this pivotal retest attempt take place:
- 2013 = 365 days post-Halving
- 2017 = 427 days post-Halving
- 2021 = 550 days post-Halving
Here’s what’s even more curious about this lengthening in the post-Halving retest.
It took the 2017 retest approximately 66 days longer to occur compared to the 2013 retest.
And at the time of writing, it has taken the 2021 retest approximately 123 days longer to occur compared to the 2017 retest.
Not only is there a lengthening across cycles in terms of how many days it takes Bitcoin to perform this significant retest of the black 0.5 Fib Curve support (i.e. 66 days post-Halving then 123 days post-Halving)…
But this lengthening in the amount of days is increasing by approximately a factor of 2 (i.e. 123 days is almost twice the amount of 66 days).
In fact, this increase in days will be increasing a perfect factor of 2 in only 9 days’ time (i.e. 132 days is twice the amount of 66 days.)
The Monthly Close is actually 7 days away so in 9 days’ time, perhaps Bitcoin will have performed a successful Monthly Close above the black 0.5 Fib Curve support to fully confirm a successful retest.
More Lengthening?
Let’s now look at the lengthening in terms of the actual retest itself.
Once the 2013 retest of the black 0.5 Fib Curve was complete - it took BTC very little time to actually rally to the very top of the Bitcoin Log Growth Curve channel to peak in its Bull Market:
In 2017 however, it took Bitcoin around 3 months (91 days) to rally to the top of the Growth Curve Channel after a successful retest of the black 0.5 Fib Curve as new support.
What about in this cycle?
Could it be that the amount of time that it takes BTC to rally to the top of the channel actually lengthens, compared to what has happened in the past?
It’s possible, but it’s difficult to say at this stage.
Here’s what we can say however:
Should this amount of days post-retest remain constant at around 90 days just like in 2017, then (assuming that this retest will be successful by this November Monthly Close) then that would mean that Bitcoin could reach the top of its Growth Curve channel and therefore reach the peak of its Bull Market in February 2022.
Thank you for reading.