Altcoin Newsletter #112

Do not index

In today’s Altcoin newsletter, I cover 8 different Altcoins, specifically:

Kava (KAVA/USDT)

Algorand (ALGO/USDT)

Arweave (AR/USDT)

Cosmos (ATOM/USDT)

Quant (QNT/USD)

Tezos (XTZ/USDT)

Power Ledger (POWR/USD)

Crypto Com (CRO/USDT)

Let’s dive in.

Kava - KAVA/USDT

KAVA is forming a Macro Triangle (orange).

With this rebound, KAVA formed a Higher Low relative to the 2020 lows as well as the Binance Listing Price.

However, it is clear that the blue level acts as a key resistance and reference point for price.

Producing upside wicks beyond this blue resistance in the past have resulted in strong rejections back to the orange Higher Low support.

And so I’d expect the same to occur if KAVA fails to reclaim blue as support around Monthly Close.

Reclaiming blue as support would be bullish, as in mid-2020 KAVA retesting blue preceded a move to ~$4.

This time, a successful retest of the blue level would see KAVA rally to the red resistance at around $1.70.

Algorand - ALGO/USDT

As a preface, here’s the ALGO analysis from some two weeks ago:

And here’s today’s analysis:

Three days after the Jan 13th analysis, ALGO successfully retested the top of the green area as support.

Weekly Closing above the black resistance would give ALGO more fuel for upside via the blue path.

However, a Monthly Close below black would likely send ALGO back to the green area for another retest.

Generally speaking however, ALGO may be establishing a range formed by the top of the green box support and the black resistance.

In the past, ALGO has enjoyed some consolidation within this range so if ALGO fails to secure upside with a Weekly Close above black, then it could sentence itself to some extended consolidation here in preparation for its macro uptrend.

Macro-wise, ALGO may be near its ultimate bottom before enjoying a new macro uptrend, especially as long as ALGO holds its green Higher Low.

Arweave - AR/USDT

As a preface, here is my analysis on AR from a few weeks back:

Here is today’s update:

AR managed to successfully reclaim the bottom of the red structure as support in a picture-perfect, textbook manner - enabling a +21% move to the green resistance above.

AR needs to Weekly Close inside the green resistance and successfully retest the bottom of the green box to move beyond the green box top in an effort to challenge the red diagonal resistance above.

Until this Weekly Close inside the green area occurs, green could reject price to the bottom of the red structure for another retest.

Cosmos - ATOM/USDT

ATOM is currently forming a Lower High relative to the Q4 highs of 2022.

The combination of this Lower High and the Higher Lows form a triangle (green).

For price to have a greater chance at breaking out to the upside, ATOM needs to Monthly Close above the orange level, which has acted as a key springboard for price in mid-2021.

And the Weekly timeframe shows the importance of the orange level as support:

Because historically, losing orange as support has seen ATOM drop towards the green boxed region, but seeing as ATOM is forming a Higher Low - that would be the next logical support for ATOM should orange fail to hold.

Generally, ATOM is consolidating inside this triangle, in preparation for the next trend.

Breakout from this triangle and ATOM could revisit the ~$22 (red) highs.

Quant - QNT/USD

As a preface, here is my analysis on QNT from early December 2022:

And here is an update:

The analysis from late December outlined a decent trajectory for QNT over the months that followed; that is, December rejection from the $137 Range High and drop to the $96 Range Low.

And while the rejection indeed occurred, instead of price dropping to the $96 Range Low, it formed a Higher Low and rallied.

Now QNT is pressing beyond the black $137 resistance and looks set to Monthly Close above $137.

Should this indeed occur, QNT could dip into $137 in February for a retest, much like was the case in October 2022 when QNT successfully retested the $137 level as support before rallying towards the red $182 resistance.

However, I am also open to the possibility that this retest takes a little longer:

That is, if QNT Monthly Closes below the $137 level, it could pullback into the Higher Low which would act as a springboard that would enable a future retest of $137.

Either way, $137 is the crucial level here and these are my two plans for price.

Tezos - XTZ/USDT

XTZ is on the cusp of a key Monthly Close itself as well.

Historically, a previous Monthly Close above this blue level of $1.069 enabled a move to the red resistance.

Essentially, XTZ is trying to confirm a return back into the blue-red range.

Monthly Close above blue would enable XTZ to follow the green path into the red resistance above.

In the event of a Monthly Close occurring below the blue resistance however, XTZ would set up for a dip into the green area; downside wicking below that green area would certainly be possibility upon contact as well, but generally I’d watch for stability there in an effort to revisit the blue level again.

Power Ledger - POWR/USD

POWR lost its macro Higher Low (black) a few months ago as support and so in the short-term, it could act as resistance.

This Higher Low also is confluent resistance with the orange Range High of this current orange-orange range.

The orange Range Low sits atop the previous historical Accumulation Range and so there is signifiant historical buy-side pressure propping up this support

For POWR, the most important thing it could do for a bullish uptrend is to retest this orange Range High as support so as to rebound in an effort to reclaim the macro black Higher Low it had lost months prior.

Rejecting at the orange Range High would just sentence POWR to further sideways movement within this orange-orange range, with the Range Low being of interest.

Crypto Com - CRO/USDT

The blue level has acted as resistance in early 2021; it was the level that acted as a breakout point for the Ascending Triangle of the time.

Right now, CRO is just under the blue resistance, with no clear structure forming.

However, in early 2021 a Weekly Close above the blue level enabled a move to the red boxed region at around $0.14.

So a Weekly Close above blue this time would be bullish as well, with the orange resistance ahead at $0.11 being the immediate level to watch on confirmed uptrend.

Failure to Weekly Close above blue would send CRO back to the black level below.

In general, many Altcoins are just below key resistances and need to perform higher timeframe candle closes above them to continue moving, whereas the upcoming Monthly Close below such levels could actually solidify those resistances as a point of rejection in the short-term.

Thank you for reading.

P.S.