Table of Contents
Do not index
Do not index
In today’s newsletter, I will cover 6 Altcoins, specifically:
- Aave (AAVE)
- Cosmos (ATOM)
- Dusk Network (DUSK)
- UniSwap (UNI)
- Polygon (MATIC)
- Near Protocol
Let’s dive in.
Aave - AAVE/USDT
AAVE has broken its Macro Downtrend (green) but to little fanfare at the moment.
The top of the red box, the immediate resistance for AAVE, continues to hold price back.
But as long as AAVE stays within this red box and enjoys price-strength confirmation within it, over time AAVE could finally take-off to the upside.
Orange resistances are outlined as the next available resistances.
But it is the top of the red box that AAVE needs to break to begin its move up.
Could AAVE dip into the green Macro Downtrend for a post-breakout retest?
It’s not out of the question.
But with the Macro Downtrend breached, it is a matter of time before AAVE begins its new uptrend.
Cosmos - ATOM/USDT
ATOM is pressing beyond the top of this Ascending Triangle.
Monthly Close like this and ATOM would likely set itself up for a dip into the top of the pattern to confirm the breakout.
However, this could technically even happen on the Weekly timeframe or even lower timeframes.
Generally, ATOM needs to solidify itself above this Ascending Triangle top and retest the top as support.
At the moment, ATOM is positioning itself well for breakout those two confirmation steps are needed first: Candle Closes above the pattern top followed by retest of the same level as new support.
Dusk Network - DUSK/USDT
As a preface, here is the DUSK analysis shared a few weeks ago here in the Newsletter:
Here is an update:
DUSK has perfectly followed the pathway, rallying +100% for a perfect double since the very beginning of the green pathway.
DUSK has completed its suggested move, becoming one of the best performers of the Newsletter alongside VRA and WOO to mention a few.
So what’s next for DUSK after its +100% rally?
A bout of re-accumulation between the orange and black range are not out of the question.
And seeing as DUSK has rejected from the black Range High resistance, that orange region could be a pool of liquidity DUSK may want to retest for added momentum on the next swing up.
Of course, if DUSK reclaims the black level as support earlier, then that’s find too - in that scenario, price would enter the black-blue $0.18-$0.39 range which is extremely wide and would allow for trend acceleration rather easily given the lack of resistances within said range.
But until then, DUSK could actually spend a few days or weeks inside its current orange-black range, consolidating in preparation for the next move.
UniSwap - UNI/USDT
Despite the January Monthly Close occurring below the black Macro Downtrend…
UNI has broken its Macro Downtrend by virtue of Monthly Closing outside of it this February.
However, UNI has immediately run into its immediate resistance of ~$7 (blue).
Turn that into support though and UNI will be able to enjoy trend continuation to the upside.
Until then, UNI could dip as low as the Macro Downtrend itself, for a retest attempt to confirm this downtrend break.
The Macro Downtrend is approximately confluent with the blue Range Low.
Generally, UNI remains inside the blue-blue range where price may consolidate until it finally manages a breakout beyond the Range High of ~$7.
Polygon - MATIC/USDT
MATIC has been covered for a while in the Newsletter, so let’s review some of the charts discussed over the past few weeks:
In late January, I spoke about a key retest of the red area being needed for further upside via the green path.
That retest was successful:
After which two pathways were proposed, one taking into account a picture-perfect retest of the blue level as support (more shallow green path) and the other considered a deeper pullback:
MATIC decided to go for a shallower dip and enjoyed a picture-perfect retest of the blue level as support:
As a result, MATIC has rallied over +40% towards the black resistance above.
Clearly, MATIC is ascending level-by-level, retest-by-retest.
So what’s next for MATIC?
It’s all about reclaiming the black level as support.
Because historically, MATIC has been able to breach this level only twice before, but each time rallying to the red resistance area above.
The first time was a clean break in early 2021 and the second time was in mid-2021 but price produced two fake-breakouts in back-to-back months.
So it’s clear why the black level needs to be reclaimed as support to confirm further upside beyond the black resistance, otherwise there is a risk of a fakeout.
Upside wicks beyond black are possible just like in mid-2021 but a Weekly Close followed by a retest of black would be a positive signal; an even better signal would be a Monthly Close above black.
In the event that black rejects price, I’d be looking to the blue level of $1.07 for support as MATIC has effectively re-entered its $1.07-$1.34 (blue-black) range, once a home for sideways price action, most notably in mid-2021.
Near Protocol - NEAR/USDT
As a preface to today’s NEAR analysis, here is my analysis from late January:
Here is today’s analysis:
NEAR was able to turn the bottom of the orange region into support, enabling a +25% rally to the upside, very much resembling the early 2021 price behaviour in and around this very area.
If NEAR is able to Weekly Close and/or reclaim the red dashed level as support, then price could even rally to the blue resistance above, in line with the late January analysis.
Interestingly, the red dashed level is confluent with the Bull Flag top that NEAR has recently broken out from, so a retest of that Flag top would be a great confirmation signal for post-breakout trend continuation.
Thank you for reading.