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In today’s newsletter, I will cover 6 Altcoins, specifically:
- Zilliqa (ZIL)
- Arweave (AR/USDT)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Cosmos (ATOM)
- Dusk Network (DUSK)
- Polygon (MATIC)
Let’s dive in.
Zilliqa - ZIL/USD
Historically, whenever ZIL has reached the blue support area, price would consolidate there for months before performing a breakout.
This time around however, ZIL has skipped that multi-month consolidation phase and broken out after only several weeks spent there.
Moreover, there were no upside wicks printed beyond the blue demand area and in fact a Monthly Close beyond this area happened.
The last time ZIL performed a Monthly Close beyond the blue area like this was in late 2020 which kickstarted a new uptrend.
Technically, ZIL could dip into the blue area to retest it as support once again, but history suggests that ZIL could take off without a dip, as in late 2020 ZIL didn’t need any retest post-breakout from the blue area.
Generally though, retest or no retest, ZIL looks to be positioning itself for a move to the green resistance above at $0.44 over time.
Arweave - AR/USDT
As a preface, here is my analysis on AR from January 13th:
Here was an update showcasing the next step after reclaiming the pattern:
And here is today’s update:
AR has successfully Weekly Closed inside the green resistance area and turned the bottom of this box into a new support to launch it into trend continuation.
Since reclaiming the bottom of this red structure, AR has rallied almost +40% in total.
To confirm further upside beyond this point, AR would need to retest the top of the green box into support.
A Weekly Close above the green box top would be a good confirmation signal for that.
After Weekly Close, a retest of the top of the box would be even greater confirmation which would enable that final rally to the top of the red wedge.
Upside wicks beyond the red wedge have occurred before so upon revisit of the pattern highs, I would expect some upside volatility.
But for AR to breakout from the red wedge, a Weekly Close beyond the red diagonal resistance would be necessary.
But that’s a conversation for another day.
Cardano - ADA/USD
ADA has Monthly Closed above the black level, which means that the breakdown from November has been cancelled out.
However, as with many Altcoins, ADA hasn’t officially reclaimed the level that was lost as support in November as support.
And so as a result, it’s possible ADA could dip soon into the black level for a retest.
A retest there would be a very good step to setting up the next rally into the ~$0.50 region (blue).
Macro-wise, it would be generally promising to see this black mid-2018 resistance be turned into new macro support.
Cosmos - ATOM/USDT
ATOM has Weekly Close beyond the dashed diagonal resistance and has thus far successfully retested it as support.
But it is becoming clear that it is the ~$14 green horizontal resistance that is the main resistance to breach for ATOM to confirm a breakout, despite the already promising signs in breaching the diagonal.
While the Weekly is showing a breach beyond the diagonal however, the Monthly timeframe is showing that the Lower High has been only further confirmed.
Of course, ~$14 is the main resistance to breach for a new uptrend but if ATOM isn’t able to press past said level, a dip into the orange level could occur.
Because the most recent Monthly Close occurred above the orange level, which acted as a source of major support in mid-2021, and so a dip into orange would constitute a retest attempt in an effort to reclaim this level back as support.
And should a dip into orange occur, I feel that would give ATOM more steam to press past that ~$14 resistance.
Generally, it’s still unclear what the dominant pattern is for ATOM at this time but key levels are outlined and based on the new Monthly Close, it might appear that Higher Lows and Lower Highs are forming on price, suggesting more of a symmetrical triangle shape than an Ascending Triangle pattern.
Dusk Network - DUSK/USDT
As a preface, here is my analysis from the January 18th edition of the Rekt Capital Newsletter:
Here is today’s update:
DUSK has followed the green pathway very well, with each of the moves being traceable to either the Weekly timeframe or lower timeframes; both the blue level and red region were reclaimed as support at some point over the course of this move.
Now, DUSK is trying to hold the orange level as support in preparation for its final leg to the black resistance above at $0.18.
The Weekly Close above orange suggests that DUSK is retesting this level as support and continued price-stability here should see DUSK move higher over time.
The retest has in fact already occurred; now it’s just about follow-through.
Polygon - MATIC/USDT
As a preface, here is my MATIC analysis from a few weeks back:
And here is today’s analysis:
Indeed, MATIC was able to retest the red are as support for two consecutive weeks before rallying +27% to the upside.
Now, MATIC is trying to retest the blue level as support, something MATIC failed the last time it was at these highs.
But let’s look to the Monthly timeframe:
Two scenarios I’m watching for MATIC.
Because MATIC Monthly Closed above the blue level, that means that the mid-2021 support could be in the process of being reclaimed.
However, because MATIC just barely Monthly Closed above this level, there is always going to be a reasonable doubt whether price can hold these highs without virtually any dip.
Moreover, MATIC broke out from its green-red range last month, a range price consolidated within for several months.
But MATIC didn’t retest the top of the range (red) as support to fully confirm the breakout on the Monthly timeframe; on the other hand this retest of the red area as support was achieved twice on the Weekly timeframe.
Nonetheless, a retest of the red area on the Monthly timeframe would also be healthy, it’s just that it isn’t clear if this deeper dip would be necessary for the new MATIC uptrend.
Either way, MATIC has only just broken out from a multi-month re-accumulation range and it is a matter of catching some on a dip before trend continuation emerges, and I feel like these two paths are both equally, reasonably viable.
Thank you for reading.
P.S.